Modeling the Diffusion of Private Pension Provision

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is threefold: to adapt the innovation diffusion models to describe and predict the diffusion of private pension provision; to evaluate the suitability of diffusion models based on the historical data from the Romanian and Ukrainian voluntary pension systems; and to compare the diffusion parameters of private pension provision in these countries. The study proven that diffusion models, such as the Rogers model and the Bass model, can reproduce the diffusion of innovations in the field of pensions. The Rogers diffusion parameters for Romania and Ukraine are almost identical; this gives grounds for a conclusion about the similar behavioral patterns in post-socialist countries. However, some limitations on models use are noted. During the crisis and when using the nudge mechanism, models are not always well-fitting, but when new pension schemes are introduced or new pension funds are opened, models can be used in “guessing by analogy”.